Bitcoin’s Brutal November: What It Means for December

We are now all set to enter the last month of 2025. Historically, December has delivered mixed results. Bitcoin’s average performance this month has been +4.75%, and its median return has been -3.22%, according to data from CoinGlass.

This is unlike the current month, which has historically been very bullish for Bitcoin (BTC -0.28%) with an average return of +41.19%. The reality, however, was a stark contrast. Much like October—which dropped 3.69% despite a historical average of +9.92%—November flipped the script entirely.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is down roughly 16.75% this month, on pace for the third-worst November in the past 13 years.

The worst November (and the very first red one) was recorded in the brutal bear market of 2018, when Bitcoin posted a 36.57% decline after peaking in late 2017. The second-worst was recorded the following year, in 2019.

With returns of -16.23%, the fourth-worst November occurred during the 2022 bear market. It was also the last time that Bitcoin finished the month down. In the last two years, November was green, with returns of 8.81% and 37.29% in 2023 and 2024, respectively.

Still, with crypto operating 24/7, it’s possible that Bitcoin will see a late-month recovery.

We have already seen flashes of this happen this week, as the BTC price recovered from below $81,000 last Friday and is now trading around $91,400. As a result, Bitcoin’s November 2025 performance is currently the worst since February this year (when BTC dropped 17.39%), rather than the worst since June 2022’s 35.31% decline.

It remains possible that in the next three days, Bitcoin could still soften November’s negative performance.

Liquidity tends to thin out around the holidays, allowing smaller orders to have an outsized impact on price. However, that also means institutional capital probably won’t be there to support a strong and sustainable upside move.

How November’s Selloff Reshaped the 2025 Bitcoin & Crypto Narrative

November has completely failed to deliver on its promise of gains. In fact, we saw the exact opposite: prices fell to a seven-month low.

As a result, Bitcoin’s year-to-date (YTD) performance has also turned negative. However, an increase of 9.5% in the past seven days has BTC now down by only 2.3% YTD. The world’s largest cryptocurrency is also 27.4% off its all-time high (ATH) of $126,000, set in early October.

Notably, November didn’t just disappoint in terms of performance; the extent of drawdown (35.7%) from the ATH has completely changed the market sentiment.

It is now widely believed on Crypto Twitter (CT) that Bitcoin has topped this cycle. As crypto trader Bob Loukas noted on X:

“The Top is Likely In.”

Bitcoin’s 200-day trend, the long-term technical trend indicator that shows the average price of BTC over the past 200 days, has also turned bearish, suggesting that the bull market is, in fact, over.

Another digital asset trader, CryptoParadyme, opined on X that “It seems pretty likely at this point that we’ve seen a regime shift in the crypto markets.” according to him:

“All signs at the moment point to risk off for bitcoin, and the echoes of 2021 have reappeared: bitcoin topping decisively ahead of the equity market, which has not been feeling great over the last few months.”

Bitcoin, he noted, has simply followed the four-year cycle, where it “booms and busts around halvings.”

Of course, not everyone believes so, and some are still holding out for new highs. With institutions now driving Bitcoin’s price—primarily through spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs)—it’s argued that the largest cryptocurrency may not follow the same pattern it did during the last three cycles, when retail participation and speculation were the main drivers.

For now, though, Bitcoin appears to be closing November with its worst loss in six years. But this setback could provide the digital asset with a foundation to rally higher. It could, according to some, even set BTC up for a good start to 2026.

Bitcoin, after all, had experienced a capitulation. Overleveraged participants have largely been cleared from the market, with open interest (OI) still under $60 billion, down from a high of $94 billion on October 7.

This provides investors with an opportunity to buy back in at lower, more attractive prices.

Can December Deliver a Bitcoin Turnaround?

If we look at Bitcoin’s historical performance, every time the digital asset had a red November, it also ended December in the red.

There are only four red Novembers in Bitcoin’s history, and all of them followed a red December, so it’s not looking good for the crypto asset. But as we saw first with October and now November, it’s a possibility that we’ll have a different outcome this time.

Thanks to Spot Bitcoin ETFs, this time could actually be different. The meaningful entry of institutions may change the pace and timing of the Bitcoin price action.

It’s also possible we see a “Santa Rally,” a traditional market phenomenon. What is a Santa Claus rally? It is a calendar effect that sees stock prices rise during the last five trading days of December and the first couple of trading days in January.

The rally can be attributed to investor purchases in anticipation of the Santa Claus rally itself or even the January effect, which involves an increase in stock prices in the first month of a new year. In anticipation of an upcoming rally, investors may buy assets at lower prices to sell them at higher prices.

Not to mention, volume is light at this time due to holiday vacations, making it easier to move prices higher.

An analysis by Fidelity, spanning 30 years of market data, shows that the S&P 500 has delivered positive returns in 22 of those years. In 2024-2025, though, SPX had a reverse Santa Claus rally, with the market selling off stocks.

In contrast, the UK’s best-known stock market index, the FTSE 100, has risen 24 times. The trend actually survived the financial crisis and the Covid pandemic.

Data suggests that traditional markets could experience a Santa Claus rally this year too, which, given Bitcoin’s increased institutionalization, could also drive gains in the crypto sector.

But it’s worth noting that the S&P 500 has surged 15.83% YTD and is currently at 6,812.61, trading near its peak of 6,920.34 seen late last month. In contrast, Bitcoin is in the red YTD and down double-digits from its ATH.

If we look specifically at the crypto market, the Santa Claus Rally has occurred 9 times out of 11 years between Dec. 27 and Jan. 2, except in 2021 and 2022.

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As for BTC, in particular, over the last 11 years, it rallied 8 times pre-Christmas and 6 times post-Christmas.

Things are looking decent, with strong chances of Bitcoin and the broader crypto market rallying. We are already seeing signs of recovery and renewed sentiments after weakness dominated the market for several weeks.

On-Chain Data After the November Bitcoin Selloff

After falling to almost $80,000 last week, Bitcoin has made a nice recovery this week, making a few attempts to break above $92,000, though it has yet to succeed.

According to crypto trader DonAlt, “IF the monthly reclaims $93.5k it actually starts looking quite alright again on the HTFs,” but added that “Next few days are quite crucial.”

However, it’s worth noting that Bitcoin’s recent reclaiming of the $90K level actually came on the back of thin demand and liquidity, which resembles the weakness seen during the beginning of the last bear market.

Blockchain analytics provider Glassnode noted that Bitcoin continues to trade below the short-term holder (STH) cost basis of $104,600, placing the market in a low-liquidity zone similar to the Q1 2022 post-ATH period. The collapse of the STH Profit/Loss Ratio to 0.07x actually points to demand momentum drying up.

For the current trend to make a proper shift, realized losses need to shrink, and STH profitability needs to recover above neutral levels. If the liquidity doesn’t reset, Bitcoin could drift back towards its “True Market Mean,” which is near $81K.

But it’s not all bad. According to J. A. Maartunn, a community analyst at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, the spot market is entering recovery mode with cumulative volume delta (CVD) moving from negative territory into neutral, which is “a significant step forward!”

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Research Japan noted this in a blog post:

“The Bitcoin market is showing clearer signs — across futures, spot, and on-chain data—that the recent ‘leveraged phase’ is ending and longer-term capital is returning.”

He also noted that excess retail investor activity on Bitcoin futures is “fading,” a pattern that was seen in “past market turning points,” meaning the market structure is becoming healthier. Short-term holders are also showing signs of clear capitulation.

Then there’s the Puell Multiple, an indicator that measures Bitcoin miner profitability, which has entered the discount zone, pointing to “favorable entry opportunities.”

At the current price level, Bitcoin is right around the miner production cost of about $88,000 as profitability shrinks due to increasing hashrate and decreasing hash price. A compression in miner margins while the spot price approaches production cost tends to reset the market, with weaker miners exiting and difficulty adjusting lower, easing selling pressure.

A Reuters report recently noted that Bitcoin mining activity in China is making a strong recovery, thanks to cheap electricity and significant data center expansion in power-intensive regions. China has actually captured the position of the world’s third-largest Bitcoin mining hub despite a nationwide ban that briefly sent its share to zero in 2021.

“Overall, retail exhaustion, value-zone metrics, leverage unwinding, whale accumulation, and regulatory progress suggest the recent decline is more likely a “deep pullback in an ongoing bull cycle,” rather than the start of a major downturn. Beneath the surface, market structure is quietly improving,” states the XWIN Research Japan post.

When it comes to accumulation, on-chain data shows mid-size whales (10-1,000 BTC) are steadily buying the asset.

Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score also shows that over the past week, entities holding 10,000 BTC or more have started accumulating BTC, while the 1,000 to 10,000 BTC cohort has begun buying for the first time since September.

Data from Farside also shows some ETF buying activity this week, though demand remains weak. November has been a brutal month for ETF flows, with $4.76 billion in outflows. Meanwhile, inflows have been scarce. There were only 7 days of net inflows, totaling a mere $1.2 billion.

Even digital asset treasuries (DATs) are busy buying, adding 18.7K BTC net this month.

However, DATs are facing a critical period as the MSCI Index decides whether to exclude companies that accumulate crypto assets. A decision on the same is expected in January. This is big as passive funds linked to Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR +0.88%), which holds more than 649,000 BTC (over 3% of Bitcoin’s total supply), represent almost $9 billion in market exposure.

Altcoins After Bitcoin’s November Crash: Who’s Hurting Most?

With Bitcoin struggling, altcoins are naturally not having a good time. The total crypto market cap is currently just under $3.2 trillion, up from the $2.97 trillion low hit on Nov. 23, but still down substantially from the almost $4.4 trillion peak on Oct. 7.

Among the top 100 crypto assets, more than one-fourth of them are down 80% to 99% from their ATHs. And half of them are down more than 50% from their peaks.

The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum (ETH +1.02%), has jumped above $3K after falling to about $2,600 last week. With that, ETH is now down 10.5% YTD and 38.6% from its $4,946 ATH.

As for the month of November, ETH has posted a loss of 21.28%, marking the third straight month that the altcoin has gone down in value. The crypto asset that pioneered smart contracts recorded losses of 5.71% in September and 7.02% in October.

Demand for bullish ETH positioning in the derivatives market appears to be declining, with OI around $36 billion. This is a substantial drop from the peak on August 23rd when OI surpassed $70 billion. Ever since then, OI has been gradually decreasing, in contrast to the buildup in the four months prior. Between April and August, Ether OI surged by more than $50 billion.

But some investors are still interested. This includes Tom Lee’s BitMine (BMNR +4.35%), which added 14,618 ETH to its corporate Ethereum treasury on Thursday, bringing its total holdings closer to 3.65 million ETH.

This backs Lee’s bullish views. Recently, in an interview, he predicted the ETH price to surge toward $7,000 to $9,000 by the end of January 2026.

Even ETF buyers are investing in Ether. Spot Ethereum ETFs attracted $291.7 million over the last four consecutive days of net inflows. These were the only inflows, aside from $12.5 million on Nov. 6, that Ethereum ETFs have recorded this month.

So, there were just five days of net buying while outflows dominated November, totaling $1.8 billion, against meager $304.2 million in inflows.

Meanwhile, the Royal Government of Bhutan has put its ETH to use, now earning passive income on its holdings. The government has staked 320 ETH through the institutional staking services provider Figment. Besides Ethereum, Bhutan also holds about 6,154 Bitcoin.

Amidst all this, the Ethereum network is preparing for a major upgrade called Fusaka, which will improve its scalability. The upgrade is scheduled to debut on the mainnet next week.

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s biggest competitor, Solana (SOL -2.43%), is facing a proposal to rescue staking rewards. A Solana developer has called for doubling the programmed staking reward decline to -30% per year to reduce inflation and, in turn, the sell pressure on SOL.

“Some stakers treat staking rewards as ordinary income and need to sell a portion to cover taxes,” stated Lostintime101, a researcher at Solana developer platform, Helius, in the proposal. By doubling the disinflation rate, Solana can materially reduce emissions while avoiding introducing shocks to the system, he added.

SOL is the 6th-largest cryptocurrency, with a market cap of $78 billion. Its price is down 26.57% YTD as SOL trades at $140, which represents a 52% drawdown from its ATH hit in January this year.

On Nov. 26, spot Solana ETFs broke their 21-day streak of inflows since their debut earlier this month by recording a net outflow of $8.2 million. Solana ETFs currently hold almost $918 million in total net assets.

Macro Tailwinds and Headwinds for Bitcoin and Crypto in 2026

While Bitcoin and broader crypto are struggling, gold is holding strong above $4,100. The bullion actually outperformed all major assets in the last quarter, posting 15.6% gains, while the digital gold stalled.

The precious metal is being supported by dwindling enthusiasm for crypto and AI, a weaker dollar, and falling rates.

Rate cuts are also favorable to a risky asset like crypto. And the CME FedWatch Tool shows traders giving an 84.7% possibility that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 0.25% to 3.50% and 3.75%.

But there’s also a possibility that the Fed will leave rates unchanged next month due to the uncertainty arising from the US government shutdown, which lasted 43 days.

A significant shift, meanwhile, is likely next year as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s term ends in mid-May. A more dovish chairman could replace Powell, as US President Donald Trump has said on many occasions that he favors a candidate who supports an accommodative monetary policy.

A major policy development that has already taken place is the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation approving a rule to lower capital requirements. The rule comes into effect next year and could serve as a catalyst for risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

The new final rules were approved for the “enhanced supplementary leverage ratio,” which eases big banks’ leverage requirements.

It would reduce capital overall for large global banks by less than 2% or $13 billion, while the depository institution subsidiaries would see a 27% average decrease in capital requirements.

While banks must comply with the new rule by April 1, they can voluntarily adopt it from the beginning of 2026. By relaxing the rules, the government aims to promote economic growth.

The FDIC has also approved a proposed rule that would lower leverage requirements for smaller banks with less than $10 billion in assets. The community bank’s leverage ratio would be trimmed by 1% to ‌8%.

Other macroeconomic factors that can bolster bulls include governments expanding their money supply to support their economies, robust corporate earnings growth, and interest rate cuts by other major central banks.

However, softer labor indicators, a slowdown in global growth, heightened policy uncertainty, persistent inflationary pressures, and mounting concerns over AI investment trends are bearish factors that could push prices lower.

Conclusion

November has delivered a reality check. A historically bullish month turned deep red and broke sentiment, but the sharp drawdown from ATHs suggests that cyclicity remains intact.

While fear has taken over the market, under the surface, leverage has unwound, weak hands have exited, and long-term players are quietly positioning for what comes next.

So, what is next? If history is any guide, December’s path remains uncertain. Having said that, the first signs of institutional inflows, though weak, combined with improving market structure, regulatory shifts, potential rate cuts, and seasonal patterns, all point to an upside surprise.

But whether it’s a temporary bounce or a true recovery, only time will tell. November’s turmoil may ultimately provide the foundation for the next phase of the cycle.