Upstart August 2026 Originations Hit $1,342.1 Million as UMI Holds at 1.50

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST ) published its monthly origination volume for August 2026 and its latest Upstart Macro Index (UMI) reading on September 3, 2026, reporting $1,342.1 million in originations for the month alongside a UMI of 1.50.

The August volume covered 26.5 origination days, or $50.7 million in originations per day. On its origination volume data page, which states it was last updated on September 3, 2026, Upstart reports that August originations increased 57% year over year.

August 2026 Origination Volume

In the release, Upstart defines “Originations” as Transaction Volume, Dollars, one of the key operating metrics the company reports in its quarterly and annual filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The metric represents the total principal amount of loan originations, or committed amounts for home equity lines of credit and draws for Cash Line, facilitated through Upstart’s marketplace during the period presented.

The volume page adds that, beginning in the second quarter of 2026, the company refers to the metrics “Transaction Volume, Dollars” and “Transaction Volume, Number of Loans” as “Originations, Dollars” and “Originations, Number of Loans,” respectively, to reflect management’s internal terminology. Under that terminology, Originations, Dollars is defined as the aggregate of the total principal of loan originations for personal loans, small dollar loans, and auto loans, committed amounts for HELOCs, and drawn amounts for unsecured revolving credit lines under the Cash Line product, in each case facilitated on the marketplace during the periods presented.

Origination days represent the effective number of funding days in a month, based on a 24-hour funding window starting and ending at approximately 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time. Each business day counts as 1.0 day in the calculation, while weekend days and bank holidays are weighted at 0.55 days to reflect lower application activity and are rolled forward to the next business day, when those loans are typically funded. If month-end falls on a weekend or bank holiday, originations from that period are attributed to the following month. Originations, Dollars per day is calculated as total originations divided by the number of origination days in the applicable period.

Upstart states that it intends to release monthly originations data for the prior month on the third calendar day following each month, and that if that day falls on a weekend or federal holiday it intends to publish pre-market on the following business day. The company states the originations data are unaudited and preliminary, and remain subject to completion of its financial closing procedures in connection with quarterly financial results reported in its SEC filings. Upstart states the data have historically been the largest predictor of its total revenue, while cautioning that this historical correlation is not a guaranteed indicator of future final results and that the data are presented without commentary.

Upstart Macro Index Reading

The current UMI is 1.50, in line with the August 3, 2026 UMI, according to the release. For reference, a UMI of 1.50 is approximately 50% above what Upstart would expect in a normal economy, defined as a UMI of 1.0. The company states UMI has remained above 1.0 since early 2022, reflecting a sustained period of elevated default risk relative to its long-run baseline, but remains below the series’ peak of 1.68, reached in 2024.

The Upstart Macro Index estimates the impact of the macroeconomy on credit losses for Upstart-powered loans. According to the Upstart Macro Index page, UMI is expressed as a multiple of defaults relative to a static baseline due to macroeconomic changes, benchmarked against what the company views as the long-term expected average default rate. A UMI of 1.0 means a given pool of borrowers is in line with the long-run expected average, a UMI of 1.25 implies defaults are 25% higher, and a UMI of 0.75 would mean defaults are 25% lower. The index is a simplified representation, using personal loan data, of the full suite of models and techniques Upstart has developed for assessing macroeconomic risk in lending; these may be used to different extents in the underwriting of each loan product, with personal loans generally using them most fully.

The UMI page describes three model capabilities behind the calculation: the models consider thousands of borrower-level and loan-level variables to control for confounders from changes in borrower or loan characteristics over time; they predict the full set of delinquency states across each month of a loan’s life and the transition probabilities between them; and they use an architecture tested against overfitting and look-ahead bias, which allows calendar time to be added as a direct variable. Upstart states UMI is highly correlated with macroeconomic variables such as the Personal Savings Rate, Inflation, and Interest Rates, though the calculations are based only on data from Upstart-powered personal loans and may not generalize to all U.S. consumers or economic sectors.

Upstart states that it regularly recalibrates its underwriting model based on its latest read of macroeconomic conditions and that the published UMI is a close proxy for that read. Each new reading is meant to give investors and capital partners a view into the macroeconomic risk assumptions currently factored into the pricing and approval of new loans, and a directional sense of how existing loans are performing. The UMI page states the most recent monthly data point is expected to be revised by plus or minus 5%, with revisions posted weekly and each new month’s UMI published monthly.

The release states that past UMI performance is not indicative of future UMI results, that UMI is specific to Upstart’s borrower base, and that it is not intended to measure the macroeconomic loss risk of loan portfolios or asset classes that are not Upstart-powered loans. It is not designed to measure the current state of the overall economy or to measure or predict future macroeconomic conditions, trends, or risks, nor to predict the future performance of Upstart-powered loans, the company’s other products, its overall financial results, or its stock price. Upstart states its research and development efforts could result in changes or revisions to current or past UMI values or to the UMI methodology.

Upstart, founded in 2012 and based in Burlingame, California, describes itself as “the leading artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace,” connecting consumers to more than 100 banks and credit unions. The company states that more than 90% of loans are fully automated, with no human intervention by Upstart. Its platform includes personal loans, automotive loans, home equity lines of credit, and Cash Line, a revolving line of credit.