- Payroll Data Smashes Expectation for June
- USD/JPY Increases on Optimism
- Asian Markets also Open Strong on Friday
US markets received an unexpected but welcome boost on Thursday. The release of nonfarm payroll numbers showed that the economy added a huge number of additional jobs beyond expectation. Unemployment numbers also fell. The positive ripple from this has been felt in the forex market around the world with early trading in Asia showing the Japanese Yen up slightly, and a positive start to the day in China, where PMIs came in strong, and other parts of Asia.
Largest Single Month Job Gain in US History
The numbers reported yesterday in terms of US nonfarm payrolls have easily eclipsed previous highs in terms of being the largest single month job gain the country has ever seen. Analysts had forecast a still impressive gain of 2.9 million jobs added, though the actual number came in much greater at 4.8m. This was quickly heralded by President Trump as a sign of the “economy roaring back”. Wall Street also reacted positively on the back of the news, with the Dow Jones rising more than 400 points.
The Labor Department also confirmed that unemployment had fallen more than expected, to a number of 11.1%. This is the lowest since the coronavirus pandemic started. Though these numbers may not paint an entirely accurate picture since they fail to capture the period when states started to rollback their reopening measures, they have still provided a timely economic boost.
JPY Moves Slightly Higher but Remains Hampered
The USD/JPY is one of the most traded markets in the world. Forex brokers though have noted that the market has been trading without much direction for some time. The pair was boosted slightly to a high of just below 108 on news that the US jobs data had come in much better than expected. This positive move was tempered with caution though amid the increasing concern with COVID-19 cases increasing across many American states.
As a well-known safe haven currency in times of difficulty itself, it may be some time before those forex trading the Yen feel like moving out of that safety zone. Later today, Japan will publish their own bank services PMIs from June. Should this number come in greater than expected, it may provoke an additional boost in the market.
Chinese and Other Asian Markets Positive
Yesterday’s positive news from the US has extended into the Asian trading session on Friday. Markets opened strongly across the Asia Pacific region. The Shanghai Composite index jumped almost 1.5% in early trading, with major indices in Japan, South Korea, and Australia, also displaying positive signs.
Markets were further buoyed by the release of Chinese PMI data from the services sector which showed a number of 58.4 for June. This would indicate the sector is growing at the fastest rate since 2010 after much of China returned to normal activity in the month of June.
Forex Market Majors Boosted by Positive Data
- US Jobless Numbers Drop as Euro Reach Highs
- Interest Rate Hold Helps GBP/USD
- Markets Wait on Stimulus Bill Update
Both the Euro and the Pound were given a timely boost against the US Dollar as unemployment numbers in the US came in much lower than expected. The number of new claims filed dropped almost 250,000. Sterling has been boosted further by the news that the Bank of England will leave interest rates unchanged for now. This positive news has not though impacted the opening on Wall Street as traders hold out for more news on the proposed stimulus deal.
Better Than Expected Unemployment Data Provides Confidence
Although unemployment numbers are still easily at record-setting numbers, there are continuing signs of movement in the right direction as the number of weekly claims has continued to trend downward, albeit against the expectations of analysts. They had forecast a figure above 1.4 million, though the number which came in is far below that at 1.186 million.
Continuing claims have also dropped by more than 800,000 and while there is still a great distance to go, traders and the forex market alike have been quick to take the positives from the situation. The EUR/USD market quickly moved to a new two-year high above 1.19 though this has since dropped back closer to 1.185 as many forex trading the pair await the outcome of the proposed second stimulus package for the US economy.
Pound Receives Boost from BoE
The Pound has been trading well in recent days, shaking off concerns over the stalling Brexit negotiations and a step back in the UK lockdown reopening process to gain further against a weakened US Dollar. It was further aided today by news that the bank will not move to negative interest rates at any time in the near future.
Although a positive message was taken by traders, and forex brokers noted an uptick in trading of the Pound, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey was also quick to warn that this should not be perceived as an optimistic outlook, and that the bank will continue to monitor developments closely. In other positive developments though, they also revised GDP projections to predict a 2020 contraction of 9.5% instead of the previously estimated 14%. This has all left the GBP/USD trading above 1.315, having hit a multi-month high.
Quiet Market Opening as Stimulus News is Awaited
Despite the drop in unemployment numbers, markets on Wall Street opened quietly on Thursday. This follows recent days of strong gains with the S&P 500 ending yesterday within 2% of its all-time high level.
Many traders are poised and waiting for further news on the new coronavirus stimulus package which has so far failed to overcome an impasse with lawmakers in Washington. It seems that several concessions have been made in a bid to get the package passed, though there still appears to be a gap between what is being proposed, and what some feel is appropriate.
GBP/USD Forex Market Eases Off Amid Continuing Virus and Trade Concerns
- Pound Fails to Further Capitalize on Weak US Dollar
- EUR/USD Also Trading Sideways as PMIs Improve
- American Markets Continue to Improve
Having rallied well in recent days and weeks, the GBP/USD market is now trading back at reasonable numbers previously seen before the COVID-19 pandemic. The pair has dropped back slightly though on Tuesday as concerns continue on a number of fronts. The Euro is also following a similar pattern as the US yesterday released rebounding PMI figures. The major US indices are bouncing back too. They opened with a third consecutive daily gain.
Traders Worried About Possible Pound Retreat
The Pound has been making significant gains as the US Dollar weaknesses have been highlighted in recent days and weeks. That looks set to end today though as the currency slipped back to $1.30 on the charts. Those forex trading in the market are concerned as trading patterns indicate a ‘dead cat bounce’. Namely this is a heavy drop, followed by a short recovery, before another large fall.
This would appear slightly pessimistic, though forex brokers too have noted that the UK in particular faces many challenges on the horizon. These include not only a rising number of coronavirus cases as PM Boris Johnson has moved to scale back reopening processes, but also some ongoing, and increasing tensions between the UK and China, particularly over Hong Kong related issues. These combined with a lack of movement in regard to Brexit talks, could really work to stop the Pound in its tracks.
Euro Market Remains Unchanged After Opening Boost
The EUR/USD had started the day off strongly, but it too has been pegged back to around its opening mark. There are a couple of factors likely at play here. The move is more related to increasing US Dollar strength, than any Euro weakness.
US manufacturing sector PMIs yesterday rebounded to a 16 month high when numbers were released. The figure of 54.2 was impressively higher than predicted, while the new orders index also continued to surge in the right direction at 61.5. This will have strengthened the Greenback in a positive sense, while the continuing talks on another economic stimulus plan in the US have also worked to drive many traders back to the safety of the Dollar for the time being.
Continuing Talks Help Boost US Markets
These same continuing talks have given a sense of hope to the stock markets as all major US indices opened higher on Wall Street for the third consecutive day. This comes as news continues to filter out about ongoing discussions for further stimulus which have been described as productive.
Both sides at the moment would appear to have agreed on another $1200 stimulus, though there remains some stumbling blocks to overcome. This would surely boost the market at least in the short term and the optimism has been reflected in trading over recent days with gains in many hard hit sectors of the stock market such as airline travel as investors regain hope.
What is Algorithmic Trading in Forex?
Trading in the forex market has been steadily evolving over decades since it first began. This has particularly been evident in recent years with the continuing emergence of new trading strategies and methods. These have generally advanced trading to become both more convenient, and more efficient.
One such method which has experienced a sharp growth in popularity of late, is algorithmic trading. Here we will examine what exactly algorithmic trading in forex is, the methods available, and how it could be an effective tool in your trading arsenal moving forward.
The Algorithmic Trading Basics
Algorithmic trading at its core, is trading based on a computer program. This computer program follows a preset collection of instructions, an algorithm, to perform a number of functions for you as a forex trader. Typically, within forex trading, this algorithm would be set to execute trades at certain points, or to follow a defined trading strategy in a certain way based on market changes. To this end then, algorithmic trading, also known as algo-trading, can do exactly that. It can automate trading based on a strategy which you desire to implement. This strategy is then made into an algorithm and put to work on your behalf.
As technology continues to advance, not only are an increasing number of traders turning to algorithmic trading methods as a means of trading, but the algorithms themselves, are becoming more and more advanced.
In the current market, there are an endless number of options available in this market space. These range from forex robot trading which you can purchase and implement directly, to community based automated trading strategies which you can take and implement yourself through many trading platforms if your forex broker allows algorithmic trading.
Different Types of Algorithmic Trading
Broadly speaking, we can break algorithmic trading into four different types based on the desired results. We will then define this further into the most common strategies used by trader who engage in algorithmic trading.
Looking at the overview when it comes to algo-trading, we can define four general strategies, or functions, that can be performed within algorithmic trading.
Statistical Algo-Trading – This type of algorithmic trading searches through historical market data in order to identify trends and opportunities based on the data it finds, versus the current market data and trends.
Algorithmic Trade Execution – This type of strategy is used to increase the speed and efficiency of trading, typically by executing trades as quickly as possible. This type of high-frequency trading is used to great effect by scalpers within the forex trading sector.
Algorithmic Hedging – The purpose of this type of algorithmic trading is to balance your exposure to certain areas of the market, under specific conditions. This type of strategy is typically engaged by many in hedging their portfolios, or in many automated portfolio rebalancing services which have become very popular.
Ways in Which You May Use Algorithmic Trading
If we take the strategies above as general functions which algorithmic trading can perform, then this enables you to implement a number of different solutions or times when you may want to use algorithmic trading. Some of the following may be made possible when you engage the strategies mentioned above.
Price Action/ Trend Following – This is one of the primary purposes for which algorithmic trading is used. It is also one of the most simple. Using the algorithm, both the previous market trend, and the current market trend can be compared and used to identify profitable trading opportunities.
Arbitrage – Particularly in forex trading, algorithms can be used to identify opportunities in various markets to exploit price differences. To employ this strategy, you will typically need to have two or more forex broker accounts. You could then potentially exploit price differentials between the two by employing algorithmic trading.
Forex Scalping – Forex scalping is the act of moving in and out of trading positions very quickly throughout the day. In doing this, scalpers aim to profit from very small market movements at any given time. These may represent tiny profits to some traders, but using algorithmic trading, it is possible to engage in thousands of these trades per day at a much faster rate that you would if trading manually.
Benefits of Algo-Trading in Forex
With a basic grounding in what algorithmic trading is, and how it functions, you may wonder what benefits it can ultimately bring to you as a trader. Here are a few of the major benefits associated with algorithmic trading in forex.
Better Trade Prices – Since algorithmic trading is preset to execute trades at certain levels, this is done almost automatically, or at least at a much faster pace than you could possible achieve through manual trading. This typically means that you have a much higher possibility of executing trades at your best desired price.
Time Saving – If you have employed an algorithmic trading strategy, then you can just set it up, and leave it to work. You do not need to be there to monitor it. This means you save yourself an untold amount of time behind the screen and executing trades.
No Emotion – Algorithmic trading is completely systematic. It is essentially a computer program which will follow the data, precisely as you instruct. This leave no room for either human error, or emotional decision making, both of which can often be costly if you are trading in any market.
When it comes to algorithmic trading, where previously you may need to have had advanced computer programming knowledge to implement some of the strategies, now that is simply not the case. Though it would be helpful, you really can get started with algorithmic trading very easily through using codes from other members of the community, or trying out some other dedicated forex robot services which can make the whole thing very easy.
Ultimately, if you want to take a more hands-off approach to forex trading which will definitely save you time, and has the potential to increase your returns, then algorithmic trading is something well worth considering.